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Deer Ridge, Brentwood Real Estate Update April ’11

Tom Schieber — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 19:55:51 +0000

Deer Ridge in Brentwood is seeing a good level of real estate activity, given the overall state of the market in Brentwood. The beautiful golf course community on the south side of Balfour Road on the West end of town, has proven to be one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Brentwood.

There are currently 14 homes for sale in Deer Ridge, with an average list price of $380,000 (about $10,000 less than the average from the same report a year ago). Of the 14 homes for sale, 11 of those listings are potential short sales, one is a traditional sale and two are bank-owned listings (REO). The highest list price in Deer Ridge among active listings is $549,888. The lowest is at $289,000.

There are 31 Pending Sales in Deer Ridge, with an average list price of $380,476. Only eight of the 38 pending sales are not short sales. The highest list price among pending sales is $525,000. The lowest is at $225,000.

There were 7 Closed Sales in Deer Ridge in April 2011. The average sales price for homes in the neighborhood was $353,685, with the highest sale at $389,900 and the lowest was at $301,000. Four of the Seven sold listings were short sales.

Year-to-date there have been a total of 37 homes sold in Deer Ridge. The average sold price is $382,037, just below the average list price of $385,167. The highest sale was $688,500 for a 4843 sqft home on Camel Back Road that was listed for sale at $750,000. It was on the market for a total of 121 days.

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Pending Home Sales Drop For Second Straight Month

Tom Schieber — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 13:51:48 +0000

After a strong run to close out 2010, the market for home resales softened a bit in January.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index dropped 3 percent last month, and December’s figures were revised downward for a loss, too, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

A “pending home sale” is defined as a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

The forward-looking index is now at a 3-month low on a national level, but still well ahead of its rolling 6-month average.

Unfortunately, national data isn’t overly helpful for buyers and sellers of real estate. The National Association of REALTORS® knows this, of course, and makes an effort to get more granular, supplementing the Pending Home Sales Index report with a region-by-region breakdown.

Between December and January, only the South Region increased in sales volume. The Midwest led the losers:

Northeast Region: -2.4%
Midwest Region : -7.3%
South Region : +1.4%
West Region : -5.2%

Even still, however, regional data remains too broad to be practical. The South Region, for example, is comprised of multiple states with thousands of cities and town. The housing market dynamics of a specific neighborhood in a specific regional city will differ from that of another neighborhood in another regional city.

Real estate data must be local to be relevant.

Overall, then, what may be most telling from January’s Pending Home Sales Index is how weather can influence results.

Most of the country faced drastic weather conditions in January, ranging from raging snowstorms to bitter cold. Events like that tend to put a damper on home sales, a contributing factor in why the number of new contracts fell.

Another reason is rising mortgage rates. Conforming and FHA rates rose week-by-week in January, robbing home buyers of 10% of their purchasing power. This, too, can slow down purchase activity as buyers adjust their expectations.

Looking forward, we should expect the Pending Home Sales Index to resume rising. Inclement weather doesn’t kill demand; it just delays it. And mortgage rates have settled somewhat. These two factors should help release pent-up demand just as the Spring Homebuying Season gets underway.

As more buyers enter the market, negotiation leverage will shift to home sellers, pressuring Brentwood home prices higher. The lowest prices of the year — and the cheapest financing — could be what you see today.

New Home Sales Crater In January, Opening The Door For Deals With Builders in Bretnwood CA

Tom Schieber — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 13:50:52 +0000

Not all housing reports are sunny, it seems.

In its monthly New Home Sales release, the U.S. Department of Commerce showed a 13 percent drop-off in annualized new construction sales between the months of December and January.

It’s the biggest one-month drop in New Home Sales since May 2010.

In addition, the supply of new homes for sale spiked higher to 7.9 months last month. ”Home supply” is defined as the amount of time it would take to sell the complete “for sale” inventory at the current pace of sales.

In December, the supply measured just 7.0 months,

Don’t fret the news, however. For buyers of new construction in Brentwood, falling New Home Sales figures can be terrific. Weaker markets put pressure on the nation’s home builders to sell their respective homes more quickly. To reach that goal, builders often discount prices and/or offer free upgrades to buyers.

Some of that action may already be in effect.

Despite falling volume, the New Home Sales report showed that new homes are selling faster than in recent months. The median time required to sell a newly-built home dropped to 7.8 months in January – a figure well below January 2010′s reading of 13.9 months.

It suggests that builders are getting better at locating buyers, and moving property.

Therefore, if you’re shopping for a new construction and see one worth buying, get to it. Not only will the home likely sell soon if it’s priced right, but an increase in mortgage rates will make the home more expensive to finance.

Every 0.250% increase to rates adds $15 monthly per $100,000 borrowed.

Existing Home Supply Down 40% In Last 6 Months

Tom Schieber — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 13:50:58 +0000

Home resales rose another 2.7 percent last month, according to the National Association of REALTORS® monthly Existing Home Sales report.

An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied and is not considered new construction.

The number of existing homes sold on a rolling 12-month basis is now at its highest point since May 2010, the month before the federal homebuyer tax credit ended. It’s also up some 40% since July 2010, the month after the tax credit ended.

But that’s not the biggest story in the Existing Home Sales report. The precipitous decline in home inventory deserves more attention.

At the current pace of sales, the complete, national home resale inventory will be sold in 7.6 months. This is close to 5 months faster as compared to last year’s peak, and well below the 2-year home supply average of 9.0 months. There more buyers in the market, it seems, and fewer homes from which they can choose.

Total home resale inventory is down to just 3.38 million homes nationwide — the fewest in 12 months.

There were other interesting statistics in the official Existing Home Sales report, including a break-down of purchases by buyer-type.

First-time buyers accounted for 29% of purchases, down from 33% in January
Repeat homebuyers accounted for 48% of purchases, up from 47% in January
Investors accounted for 23% of of purchases, up from 20% in January

In addition, distressed sales — foreclosures and short sales — made up 37 percent of the market.

Over the next few days, more housing data will hit the wires and it’s expected to show similar strength to January’s Existing Home Sales report. With falling supplies and a growing base of move-up buyers, home prices in Brentwood and around the country are expected to rise in the coming months ahead.

Cost of Living Reaches An All-Time High, Pressures Mortgage Rates Higher

Tom Schieber — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 13:53:06 +0000

Mortgage rates are up 0.875% since mid-November, causing home buyer purchasing power across Brentwood to fall more than 10 percent since.

Persistent concerns over inflation are a major reason why and this week’s Consumer Price Index did little to quell fears. CPI rose for the third straight month last month.

Wall Street was not surprised.

As the economy has picked up steam since late-2010, the Federal Reserve has held the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent, and kept its $600 billion bond plan moving forward. The Fed believes this is necessary to support the economy in the near-term.

Over the long-term, however, Wall Street worries that these programs may cause the economy may expand too far, too fast, and into runaway inflation.

Inflation pressures mortgage rates to rise.

Inflation is an economic concept; defined as when a currency loses its value. Something that used to cost $1.00 now costs $1.05, for example. It’s not that the goods themselves are more expensive, per se. It’s that the money used to buy the goods is worth less.

Because of inflation, it takes more money to buy the same amount of product.

This is a big deal in the mortgage markets because mortgage rates come from the price of mortgage bonds, and mortgage bonds are denominated, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars. When inflation in present, the dollar loses its value and, therefore, so do mortgage bonds.

When mortgage bonds lose value, mortgage rates go up.

Inflation fears are harming California home buyers. The Cost of Living has reached a record level, surpassing the former peak set in July 2008. Mortgage rates would be rising more right now if not for the Middle East unrest.

So long as inflation concerns persist, mortgage rates should trend higher over the next few quarters. If you’re wondering whether to lock or float your mortgage rate, consider locking today’s sure thing.

Fed Minutes Show Lower Unemployment And Higher Growth For 2011 and 2012

Tom Schieber — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 13:51:27 +0000

The Federal Reserve released its January 25-26, 2011 meeting minutes Wednesday afternoon. California mortgage rates have been in flux since.

Fed Minutes are comprehensive recaps of Federal Open Market Committee meetings; a detailed look at the debates and discussions that shape our nation’s monetary policy. As such, they’re released 8 times annually; 3 weeks after the most recent FOMC meeting.

Fed Minutes can be viewed as the unabridged version of the succinct, more well-known “Fed Statement” that’s released to markets immediately post-adjournment.

Just how much more lengthy are Fed Minutes?

The January 25-26, 2011 statement contains 395 words
The January 25-26, 2011 meeting minutes contains 6,916 words

If the Fed Statement is an executive summary, the Fed Minutes is a novel. And, the extra words matter.

When the Federal Reserve publishes its minutes, it’s offering clues about the group’s next policy-making steps. As an example, in the January minutes, the Fed improved its outlook for economic growth; lowered its projections for the Unemployment Rate; and removed its concern for deflation.

In addition, the Fed discussed the potential for food-and-energy-cost-induced inflation, but labeled it as a minor economic risk at this point in time.

Bond markets are mixed on the text of the Fed Minutes.

Although the Fed indicates a willingness to allow inflation to occur, it appears ready to act in case inflation goes too high. One way that the Fed responds to rising inflation is to raise the Fed Funds Rate and many economists believe this will start happening by late-2011 or early-2012.

Single-Family Housing Starts Fell In January, Despite What The Headlines May Have Told You

Tom Schieber — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 13:51:20 +0000

Annualized Single-Family Housing Starts dropped 1 percent in January to 413,000 units nationwide, it’s lowest reading almost 2 years.

A “Housing Start” is defined as a home on which construction has started.

Now, if you had only seen the Housing Starts story in the headlines today, you wouldn’t have known that single-family starts fell at all. It’s because of how the story is being reported.

Most commonly, newspaper headlines are reading something similar to “Housing Starts Jump 14.6%” with the lead paragraph making mention that “housing starts are at their highest levels in 4 years”.

It’s a true statement, but it’s misleading, too.

This is because, despite the Census Bureau reporting Housing Starts by property type — single-family, multi-family, and apartments — the media often lumps them into a single data set.

It’s a categorization that helps investors in homebuilder stocks, but it does little for everyday Brentwood home buyers. The huge majority of buyers aren’t buying multi-units or whole apartment buildings — they’re buying 1-unit homes.

Here’s how January’s Housing Starts broke down by type:

Single-Family Homes : Down 4,000 units, or -1%
2-4 Unit Homes : Negligible change
Apartment Buildings : Up 46,000 units, or +80%

Clearly, the surge in Housing Starts can be attributed to the rapid rise in the 5-unit-or-more sector. Single-Family Starts were weak, by comparison.

Even with all of this noted, however, we can’t even be certain that the January Housing Starts data is accurate anyway. A footnote in the government’s report shows that, although single-family starts are said to have decreased 1 percent, the data’s margin of error is ±8.6%.

This means that the true Single-Family Housing Starts reading may be anywhere from -9.6% to +7.6%. The data is throw-away. Housing Starts may have actually increased in January, but we won’t know until revisions are offered later this year.

New Home Builders Report Higher Sales Levels In January

Tom Schieber — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 13:50:56 +0000

Homebuilder confidence in the market for newly-built, single family homes appears stable as the spring buying season gets underway.

The confidence reading is recorded and reported monthly by the National Association of Homebuilders. For the 4th straight month, the group’s Housing Market Index reads 16.

As a market indicator, Housing Market Index has been tracked for more than twenty years and reports on a 1-100 scale. A value of 50 or better indicates “favorable conditions” for home builders.

HMI hasn’t read higher than 50 since April 2006.

Broken down, the Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys measuring current single-family sales; projected single-family sales; and foot traffic of prospective buyers.

February’s surveys showed slight improvement as compared to January, overall.

Single-Family Sales : 17 (+2 from from January)
Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (+1 from January)
Buyer Foot Traffic : 12 (unchanged from January)

It’s notable that the current sales levels were higher in February, and that projected sales levels for the next 6 months are higher, too.

For home buyers California across , this month’s Housing Market Index reading may foreshadow tougher negotiations in the months ahead with builders. The likelihood of getting discounts and free upgrades may be diminished as builders see their respective sales levels grow, and as the economy expands.

Coupled with rising mortgage rates, home buyer purchasing power may never be as high as it is today.

Therefore, if your plans call for buying a newly-built home this year, think about moving up your time frame. Builder confidence appears to have bottomed. As it rises, so should home prices.

Foreclosure Activity Drops Throughout The Most Foreclosure-Heavy States

Tom Schieber — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 13:52:26 +0000

Foreclosure activity is slowing. According to foreclosure-tracker RealtyTrac, the number of foreclosure filings dropped 17 percent on an annual basis last month. Monthly filings ticked higher 1 percent after a combined 23 percent decrease through November and December 2010.

The phrase “foreclosure filing” is a catch-all term, comprising default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions.

January marked the third straight month of sub-300,000 filings after 20 straight months above it.

As compared to January 2010, six of the nation’s 10 most foreclosure-heavy states posted an annual foreclosure filing reduction. The remaining four showed modest worsening.

It’s noteworthy that states like California and Florida posted declines of 7 percent and 54 percent, respectively, and that Nevada posted a relatively-low 3 percent gain. These three states have been at the leading edge of foreclosure activity since 2007. Their subsequent recoveries, therefore, may foreshadow a better housing market ahead.

Or, this may be lasting effects from the “robo-signer” controversy.

Regardless, home buyers in California continue to clamor for distressed homes.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, properties in various stages of the foreclosure and short sale process are selling at discounts in the range of 10-15 percent so it’s no wonder they now account for 36 percent of all home resales. Buying a foreclosure can be a great “deal”. They can be more trouble and cost than they’re worth.

Therefore, If you’re in the market for a foreclosed home in the Brentwood or Discovery Bay areas , be sure to speak with a licensed real estate agent. The process of buying a distressed home is different from buying a non-distressed home. An experienced professional can help make sure you negotiate your best possible price.

Mortgage Guidelines Starting To Loosen?

Tom Schieber — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 13:49:52 +0000

Mortgage lending appears to be loosening. At least for now.

In its quarterly survey of member banks, the Federal Reserve asks senior loan officers around the country whether their “prime” residential mortgage guidelines had tightened within the last 3 months.

A prime borrower is one with a well-documented credit history, high credit scores, and a low debt-to-income ratio.

Of the 54 responding banks, just 2 said its guidelines had tightened during the period October-December 2010. That’s less than 4 percent. And, by comparison, 95 percent of banks said guidelines remained “basically unchanged”.

The remaining banks reported a loosening.

It’s a positive sign for the housing market, and for home buyers in Brentwoo, Discovery Bay and nationwide. If banks have stopped raising the hurdles of home loan approval, in theory, more would-be buyers will be approved.

It’s much tougher to get a home loan versus 5 years ago. Delinquencies and defaults have changed how banks review loan applications. Today’s underwriters are more conservative with respect to household income, total assets and overall credit scores.

Even as compared to January 2010, approval standards are higher :

Minimum credit score requirements are higher
Downpayment/equity requirements are larger
Maximum allowable debt-to-income ratios have been lowered

Although mortgage rates remain low, qualification standards do not. Based on last quarter’s banking survey, however, mortgage applicants in California may find approvals easier to come by soon. Low rates don’t matter, after all, if you’re not eligible to get them.

The housing market is strong and lending looks to be loosening. It should help fuel the demand for homes in 2011, which will push supplies down and lead prices up. For homeowners that qualify, therefore, the best time to purchase a home may be sometime this spring.